青藏高原、中国东部及北美副热带地区夏季降水系统发生频次的TRMM资料分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

周胜男  罗亚丽  汪会 《气象》2015,41(1):1-16

利用1998—2011年夏季（6—8月）TRMM卫星资料分析青藏高原（TP）、中国东部（EC）及北美副热带西部（WNA）和东部（ENA）降水系统的发生频次,定义降水系统为TRMM测雨雷达观测到近地面有降水的相邻像元组成的个体,即RPF （Radar Precipitation Feature）,将RPF分为全体RPF、大面积RPF（面积＞1000 km2）和小面积RPF（面积不＜400 km2）3组,对比分析四个区域内各组的RPF个数发生频次和RPF像元个数发生频次,主要结果如下：（1）全体RPF的个数发生频次在青藏高原地区最高,北美东部地区最低;全体RPF的降水像元个数发生频次在中国东部最高,青藏高原最低。（2）四个区域内RPF发生频次的日变化主要为单峰结构,峰值出现在当地午后至傍晚,且大面积RPF的峰值时间晚于小面积RPF的;中国东部地区RPF降水像元个数发生频次则具有双峰结构。（3）RPF降水像元个数发生频次的分析结果与以往基于地面观测降水量的分析结果相似。  相似文献   

2015年4月大气环流和天气分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

周康辉  方翀 《气象》2015,41(7):915-920

2015年4月环流特征如下：极涡为偶极型环流,极涡主体位于格陵兰西侧与加拿大之间,另一中心位于亚洲的东北部;两个极涡中心较常年平均偏低4~8 dagpm,乌拉尔山高压脊偏高8~12 dagpm;副热带高压面积偏大、西脊点偏西,南支槽位置与强度接近常年平均;4月全国平均气温11.6℃,较常年同期（11℃）偏高0.6℃;全国平均降水量43 mm,接近常年同期（44.7 mm）,我国中东部长江以北地区降水偏多,江南、华南降水偏少。4月全国强对流天气过程频发,1—4、19—20和28—29日出现了范围较大的强对流天气。北方地区出现2次沙尘天气。  相似文献   

东北夏季降水的年代际特征及环流变化   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

丁婷  陈丽娟  崔大海 《高原气象》2015,34(1)

利用1961-2012年中国东北地区91个气象站逐月降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和海温资料,以及经验正交函数分解EOF、显著性检验等方法,分析了东北地区夏季降水的时空分布特征、年代际变化特征及相应的环流分布型变化,探讨了不同年代际背景下东北夏季降水年际变化的环流差异。结果表明,东北夏季降水存在明显的年代际变化特征,在1961 1983年(P1)期间降水偏少,19841998年(P2)期间降水偏多,1999年之后(P3)又进入偏少时段。P2与P1时段相比,东北气旋式环流和蒙古反气旋式环流异常增强,而西北太平洋副热带地区为气旋式环流异常,来自西北太平洋偏东水汽输送贡献明显。P3与P2时段相比,东北冷涡活动偏弱,东北地区东部在850 h Pa为偏北风异常,偏南水汽输送有所减弱。进一步分析证实,北太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)对于东北地区夏季降水及相关环流型的年代际变化有重要的调制作用。P1与P3同为降水偏少时段,PDO都处于负位相,东北地区反气旋式环流都偏强;然而P1时段的多雨年,水汽输送主要来自较强的夏季风偏南气流;P3时段的多雨年,水汽输送可能主要来自西北太平洋地区。  相似文献   

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EASTERN ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON SYSTEM BASED ON FUZZY SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL INVERSION FORECAST     

洪梅  张韧  阎恒乾  葛晶晶 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(S1):34-45

Based on the adaptive network fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), methods to filter out the noise of impact factors from the main signal are discussed. Focusing on the abnormal weather conditions in 2010, we use the delay-relevant method to analyze the five members of the summer monsoon system that had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies from the observational data. ANFIS is suitable for research and simulation of subtropical highs that are difficult to describe accurately with dynamics, allowing the effect of five factors on the subtropical high anomalies to be examined. Our results show that the Mascarene cold high, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies. Diagnostic analysis, with genetic algorithms (GA) and dynamical reconstruction theory, reconstructed the nonlinear dynamical model of the subtropical high and its main factors objectively and accurately from the sequence of observations in 2010. Furthermore, a dynamically extended forecast experiment is performed. The forecasts for the subtropical high area index, the Mascarene cold high index, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough index all show a strong short-term effect over less than 25 days. The forecasting trend is accurate, and the error rate is no more than 7%. Our results provide new insight and methods for research on the association between the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon system, and for the prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high index.  相似文献   

影响夏季西北太平洋副热带高压年际变率的关键海区及影响机制   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

何超  周天军  吴波 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,73(5):940-951

西北太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)是影响东亚夏季气候的主要环流系统,其年际变率受热带多个海区的海-气相互作用过程的调控。为明确影响夏季西太副高的关键海区及其影响机制,在总结最近十余年来相关研究进展的基础上,归纳出影响夏季西太副高年际变率的5个关键海区,包括赤道中东太平洋、热带印度洋、副热带西北太平洋、海洋大陆附近海区以及热带大西洋。阐述了这5个关键海区的海温异常影响西太副高年际变率的机制,并探讨了5个关键海区海温异常的形成机制。围绕夏季西太副高的年际变率,回顾了当前气候模式的模拟和预测研究的现状。最后,提出了本领域亟待解决的关键科学问题,展望未来可能的研究热点。  相似文献   

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Baiquan Zhou  Ruoyun Niu  Panmao Zhai 《大气科学进展》2015,32(3):401-412

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.  相似文献   

机载LiDAR生成亚热带森林林下DTM的地面误差分析     

武晓天  李慧姝  阮芳  冯皓宁  陈明强  王长委  王斌 《测绘通报》2021,(11):101-105

目前LiDAR技术已经成为DTM的主要生产方法。地面误差对LiDAR生成DTM的精度影响比较明显,特别是由于亚热带森林植被覆盖区LiDAR激光点云少,生成的DTM更复杂,需要分析地面误差对LiDAR生成林下DTM的精度影响。本文以华南农业大学增城教学科研基地为研究对象,从森林郁闭度和坡度两个方面探讨了地面误差对机载LiDAR数据生成林下DTM精度的影响。研究结果发现高程误差会随郁闭度的增大而增大;而随坡度变化趋势不明显,但是坡度为15°时成为误差的分水岭,其前后误差差异比较明显。总体而言,郁闭度的影响更为明显。  相似文献   

Spatial variation patterns of subtidal seaweed assemblages along a subtropical oceanic archipelago: Thermal gradient vs herbivore pressure     

Carlos Sangil  Marta Sansón 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011,94(4):322-333

The structure and composition of subtidal rocky seaweed assemblages were studied at 69 sites on the Canary Islands (northeastern Atlantic). This group of islands are situated at the southern boundary of the warm temperate region and adjacent to the cold waters from the northwest African coastal upwelling, which creates a difference of almost 2 °C in surface seawater temperature from the eastern to the western islands. This thermal variation allows an examination of the transition between the warm temperate and the tropical regions along this longitudinal gradient together with the hypothesised Fucales-dominated assemblages towards the eastern islands in contrast to the Dictyotales-dominated assemblages towards the western ones. Environmental and biological parameters were considered in order to investigate which were the main factors explaining spatial variation along the gradient in a multi-scaled approach. Although seventy-nine macroalgae were identified, 87.63% of the total mean cover was due to six taxa (Lobophora variegata, nongeniculate corallines, Canistrocarpus cervicornis, Jania adhaerens, Cystoseira abies-marina and Pseudolithoderma adriaticum). At a large scale, sea urchin density explained the highest variation in seaweed assemblages (26.94%), and its pattern of distribution across the islands. The expected pattern of distribution according to the upwelling distance only occurred in restricted areas of the Canarian Archipelago in absence of herbivore pressure and habitat degradation. Spatial variations within islands (medium scale) were mainly related to wave exposure, while at a small scale these were mostly due to the degree of sedimentation.  相似文献   

玉林夏季高温天气气候特征与环流形势分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘金裕  林确略  陆丽安  孙素琴 《气象研究与应用》2011,32(4):6-12,106

利用近50年（1961～2010年）广西玉林站的气温、风、相对湿度、日照等地面观测资料及历史天气图、NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,统计分析了玉林夏季高温天气的气候特征并探讨出现高温天气的大气环流形势。结果表明：（1）玉林高温天气主要出现在6-9月,3d以上的持续高温主要出现在7～8月,且高温日数的年际差异很大。玉林高温...  相似文献   

2010年广西高温热浪气象灾害成因分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

覃卫坚  李耀先 《气象研究与应用》2011,32(4):13-16

利用1951—2010年广西气温资料和NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,使用Morlet小波分析等方法．分析得到广西高温酷热天气有增高的变化趋势,具有12～14a和10a周期变化特征。2010年7-9月广西多次出现持续性大范围高温天气,多站次打破当地历史同期极端最高气温记录,主要成因为：副热带高压强度偏强、位置脊线偏西、广...  相似文献